THE LESSONS OF "SUCCESSION CRISES" IN U.S.-LATIN AMERICAN RELATIONS
The actions of the moderate opposition matter:
Where revolutionaries align with moderates, U.S. opposition leads to anti-Americanism (Nicaragua). Where moderates do not align with extremists, democracy can emerge (Chile). Where moderates do not exist, the military or the revolutionaries fill the power vacuum (Haiti).
The capacity of the military to repress matters:
Where the armed forces collapse, anti-American governments emerge (Nicaragua, Cuba).
Elections mattered:
Where elections could be protected from fraud, these contests imparted legitimacy on the opposition and discredited the extremists. Exceptions: Nicaragua, Haiti, and Cuba, where the history of elections and democracy was particularly weak. U.S. support for elections was not enough.