Select two of the following three countries: Britain, Germany, and Russia. Based on your reading of these cases, class discussions, and my lectures, construct a causal argument about the origins and/or maintenance of democracy in your selected cases. You should focus on an institution (e.g., parliamentary sovereignty, presidentialism, federalism, two-party government, electoral system, etc), common/distinct social origin (as Barrington Moore did with these cases), key political actors (e.g., parties and coalitions, the working class, Margaret Thatcher or Vladmir Putin), or concept (e.g., infrastructural vs despotic power). You must specify the following:

(1) Define the dependent variable: the strength/weakness of democracy, the existence/absence of democracy. Specify what type of variable it is, how it varies, and how you will operationalize it.

(2) Define the independent variable (hint: use the suggestions above), but specify what type of variable it is, how it varies, and how you will operationalize it.

(3) Explain the causal relationship between your independent and dependent variables. At this point also specify if there are any intervening variables. Flesh out the entire causal relationship. Watch out for the fallacies of causal argument!

(4) Prove your argument true by comparing your two empirical cases. For example, if you think that strong political parties were important in the maintenance of German democracy in the post-war period, show the reader that this was true by describing the role that strong parties played in Germany. Then you might suggest how weak parties in Russia during the 1990s have threatened democratic rule by describing the travails of Russian politics in recent years.

(5) EXTRA POINTS: Show me how your proposed causal argument might be true by specifying other variables and controlling for them so that you might isolate the true causal weight of your independent variable. Use the comparative method to also show me how your research design is free of selection bias and measurement error.

This second paper must be five to six pages, double-spaced, 12 cpi font, one-inch margins, and paginated. I encourage students to come in and speak with me about possible candidate arguments. You may do so during the discussion section or simply during my office hours. I also encourage you to work in small groups and see me together. I will organize at least one discussion group to facilitate your coordination. This paper is due on Tuesday, February 22 at 5 p.m. in my office (Willis 407) in hardcopy.